news

README

Quality News

Towards a fairer ranking formula for Hacker News

Quality News is a Hacker News client that provides additional data and insights on submissions, notably, the upvoteRate metric. The metric is the result of our collection and analysis of the Hacker News voting data set. We propose that this metric could be used to improve the Hacker News ranking algorithm.

Quality News uses live minute-by-minute rank and upvote data collected from Hacker News. It looks and behaves very similar to the original Hacker News site except it shows upvoteRate and other metrics next to each story. It also provides charts with the history of each story's rank, upvotes, and upvote rate. It is a lightweight, server-side rendered page written in go and hosted on fly.io.

We hope for interest and support from the Hacker News community to encourage official ranking experiments on the Hacker News frontpage. We're happy to help where we can in this regard.

This is a collective intelligence experiment by Social Protocols. Follow us on Mastodon or Twitter, or send a mail.

Introduction

The Problem

The success of a story on HN is partly a matter of timing and luck. A few early upvotes can catapult a new story to the front page where it can get caught in a feedback loop of even more upvotes.

graph LR
    R(Higher Rank)
    U(More Upvotes)
    R --> U
    U --> R

As a result, the HN ranking algorithm is not consistent: the same story submitted multiple times can receive vastly different numbers of upvotes every time. For example, this story was submitted 3 times over the course of two days, receiving 6 upvotes in total for the first two submissions, and 437 upvotes for the third.

Nor are upvote counts necessarily comparable. The best submissions don't always get caught in the positive feedback loop. So the stories that make the front page may not reflect the aggregate intent of Hacker News community-members as revealed by their upvote behavior. We discuss this problem further in our article Improving the Hacker News Ranking Algorithm.

The Solution

Quality News aims to solve this problem with a new metric: upvoteRate. upvoteRate quantifies how much more or less likely users are to upvote a story compared to the average story regardless of:

• the time/day of week a story was submitted
• overall amount of traffic to the site
• whether the story gets caught in a positive rank-upvote feedback loop

We believe that if the HN Ranking Formula were based on upvoteRate instead of upvotes, the stories on the front page might better reflect the intent of the community.

The Current Ranking Formula

This is the current Hacker News ranking formula:

 rankingScore = pow(upvotes, 0.8) / pow(ageHours + 2, 1.8)

The ranking on the front page is created by evaluating the formula for each story and arranging the stories according to their rankingScore. Note that this formula does not take the rank or timing of individual upvotes into account. So a story that receives 100 upvotes at rank 1 is valued the same as one that receives 100 upvotes at rank 30, even though a story on rank 1 is seen by more users than a story on rank 30. And upvotes received during peak hours are treated the same as upvotes received during period of low traffic. This makes upvotes an unreliable measure of the community interest in a story.

To solve this problem, the new upvoteRate metric should be adjusted for rank and timing, effectively giving upvotes received at high ranks and peak times less weight, eliminating the positive feedback loop.

Upvote Share by Rank

We start by looking at historical upvote data on Hacker News for each rank and page type: top (front page), new, best, ask, and show. We obtained this data by crawling the Hacker News API every minute for several months, and recording each story's rank and score (upvote count). The change in score tells us approximately how many upvotes occured at that rank during that time interval.

We then calculated the share of overall site-wide upvotes that occur at each rank. For example, the first story on the top page receives on average about 10.2% of all upvotes (about 1.169 upvotes per minute), whereas the 40th story on the new page receives about 0.05% (about 0.0055 upvotes per minute). Upvote shares for the top page are summarized in the chart below.

topRank	avgUpvotes	avgUpvoteShare
1	1.169	10.2%
2	0.698	6.1%
3	0.538	4.7%
...		...
10	0.274	2.4%
...		...
40	0.043	0.4%
...		...
80	0.013	0.1%
TOTAL	11.493	100%

Expected Upvotes Over Time

If we multiply the average upvote share for a rank by the total site-wide upvotes during some specific time interval, we get the number of expected upvotes for that rank and time interval. Or to be more precise, we get the number of upvotes we would expect the average story to receive at that rank during that time interval.

expectedUpvotes[rank, timeInterval]
    = avgUpvoteShare[rank] * sidewideUpvotes[timeInterval]

For example, during the minute starting 2023-02-07 11:08:00Z, there were a total of 9 upvotes on Hacker News. Rank 1 is expected to receive 10.2% of sitewide upvotes. So, regardless of how many upvotes the story at rank 1 actually received during that minute, the expected upvotes for a story at rank 1 during that minute is:

expectedUpvotes[1, 2023-02-07 11:08]
    = avgUpvoteShare[1] * sidewideUpvotes[2023-02-07 11:08]
    = .102 * 9
    = .918

Given a history of the story's rank over time, we can compute its total expected upvotes:

totalExpectedUpvotes for a story =
  sum(for each timeInterval in the history of that story) expectedUpvotes[rank of story at that timeInterval, timeInterval]

For example, suppose the story at rank 1 also spent the following minute there, during which time interval there were an additional 5 site-wide upvotes. So far, totalExpectedUpvotes for the story is:

  expectedUpvotes[1, 2023-02-07 11:08] + expectedUpvotes[1, time 2023-02-07 11:09] + ...
  = .102 * 9 + .102 * 5
  = 1.428

Computing this sum over the story's entire history on Hacker News gives the story's totalExpectedUpvotes. Below is a sample chart showing the actual rank history for one story, and the corresponding values of totalExpectedUpvotes vs actual upvotes. Note that this particular story consistently received far more upvotes than expected. You can see these charts for any story by clicking on the ×upvoteRate next to the story on Quality News.

Chart of Rank, Upvotes and Expected Upvotes for a Sample Story

History of rank, upvotes, and expected upvotes for a sample story

The Upvote Rate

The above story consistently received more upvotes than expected. Other stories consistently receive less.

The factor of how many more or fewer upvotes a story receives than expected is called its upvoteRate. During each time interval, each story should receive, on average, the expectedUpvotes for the rank it was shown at times the story's upvoteRate:

upvotes[timeInterval]
    ≈ upvoteRate * expectedUpvotes[rank[timeInterval], timeInterval]

Chart of Upvote Rate for a Sample Story

History of the estimated upvote rate of a sample story

The relationship upvotes ≈ upvoteRate * expectedUpvotes holds even in the aggregate, independently of the ranks at which upvotes actually occurred. This can be seen by taking the sum of a story's upvotes across all time intervals:

totalUpvotes = sum{for each timeInterval} upvotes[timeInterval]
             = sum{for each timeInterval} upvoteRate * expectedUpvotes[rank[timeInterval], timeInterval]
             ≈ upvoteRate * sum{for each timeInterval} expectedUpvotes[rank[timeInterval], timeInterval]
             ≈ upvoteRate * totalExpectedUpvotes

This means we can estimate upvoteRate simply by dividing the story's total upvotes by its total expected upvotes:

upvoteRate ≈ totalUpvotes / totalExpectedUpvotes

We call this estimate the observed upvote rate.

We can better estimate the true upvote rate by adjusting the observed upvote rate to account for small sample sizes, and a phenomenon we call fatigue. See more details under Bayesian Averaging and Fatigue below.

A Proposed New Formula

The following is a proposed alternative Hacker News ranking formula based on estimatedUpvoteRate.

newRankingScore
    = pow(age * estimatedUpvoteRate, 0.8) / pow(age + 2, 1.8)

This formula simply substitutes age * estimatedUpvoteRate for upvotes in the original Hacker News ranking formula. In general, upvotes is roughly proportional to age * estimatedUpvoteRate, and the rankings are not effected by multiplying upvotes by a constant factor, so this formula approximates the ranking a story should have given its upvote rate and age.

Unfortunately, the actual Hacker News ranking score is further adjusted based on various factors including flags, moderator penalties and bonuses, domain, and number of comments. Although we know or can guess about some of these factors, data on flags and moderator actions are not publicly available. This means we can't actually reproduce the Hacker News ranking score, and therefore cannot modify it to show what the Hacker News front page would look like using our new formula.

Although we have made some attempts to automatically infer penalties and bonuses based on differences between a story's actual rank and raw rank, the results have been questionable so far.

As a logical next step, we suggest that the Hacker News team experiments with the new formula on an alternative front page. This will allow the community to evaluate whether the new ranking formula is an improvement over the current one.

Development

The application is a single Go process that crawls the Hacker News API every minute. For each story, it records the current rank and page (top, new, best, etc.), and how many upvotes it has received, computes the expected upvotes share for that rank and updates the accumulated expected upvotes for that story. The data is stored in a Sqlite database.

The frontpage generator queries the database and calculates the Bayesian average upvote rate in the SQL query. It then uses the Go templating library to generate HTML that mimics the original HN site. The frontpage is regenerated every minute and served directly from memory.

Running it locally

Make sure, you have:

• go 1.19+
• direnv - to set environment variables automatically
• entr - to automatically rerun server when files change
• sqlite3

Run:

source .envrc # if you don't have direnv installed

go get

Then:

go run *.go

Or, to automatically watch for source file changes:

./watch.sh

Using NIX

There is also a shell.nix available, which provides all required dependencies.

Install nix on your system, enter the news directory, and run:

nix-channel --update
nix-shell
./watch.sh

Contributions

All contributions are welcome! Please open issues and PRs.

Appendix: Refinements to Expected Upvotes Estimate

Bayesian Averaging

If we don't have a lot of data for a story, the observed upvote rate may not be a very accurate estimate of the true upvote rate.

A more sophisticated approach uses Bayesian inference: given our prior knowledge about the distribution of upvote rates, plus the evidence we have observed about this particular story, what does Bayes' rule tell us is the most probable true upvote rate?

Since there are infinitely many possible true upvote rates, we can't use a trivial application of Bayes rule. But we can estimate the most likely true upvote rate using a technique called Bayesian Averaging. Here is a good explanation of this technique from Evan Miller.

The Bayesian Averaging formula in our case is:

estimatedUpvoteRate ≈ (totalUpvotes + strengthOfPrior) / (totalExpectedUpvotes + strengthOfPrior)

Where strengthOfPrior is a constant we have estimated to be about 2.3 using an MCMC simulation.

Fatigue

In general, upvote rates decrease as a story receives more attention. The more attention a story has received, the more likely it is that users have already seen it. So if a story spends a lot of time on the home page the upvote rate will eventually start to drop noticeably.

But we'd like a true upvote rate estimate that measures the tendency of the story itself to attract upvotes, and not the amount of attention it has received on Hacker News. To do this we build a fatigue factor into the expected upvote model. In the formula below, the rate of growth of adjustedExpectedUpvotes decays exponentially as expected upvotes grows:

adjustedExpectedUpvotes = (1 - exp(-fatigueFactor * totalExpectedUpvotes)) / fatigueFactor 

We have used the MCMC simulation to estimate a fatigueFactor of about 0.007435115. Plugging in this estimate into the Bayesian Averaging formula, we get our final formula for estimatedUpvoteRate:

estimatedUpvoteRate ≈
    (totalUpvotes + strengthOfPrior)
    / ( (1 - exp(-fatigueFactor * totalExpectedUpvotes)) / fatigueFactor + strengthOfPrior)

Appendix: Possible Improvements

Moving Averages

Looking only at more recent data could make vote manipulation even harder: it would require a constant supply of new votes as the moving average window moves.

The moving average window would be based on expected upvotes, not time, since expected upvotes is roughly proportional to the number of people who have paid attention to a story and thus can be thought of as a proxy for sample size