pick6

README

pick6

Terminal war room for fantasy football drafts. Live-syncs Sleeper, tracks tiers, and tells you when the RB run means the value's gone.

A scripted room drafts, the cliff banner fires, the ranking re-sorts under it; a stops the clock, / finds a player, and tab drops to every number the engine holds. Recorded from the real thing — docs/demo.tape, vhs docs/demo.tape to regenerate.

what it does

• Survival odds on every player — the chance he's still there at your next pick, by simulating the picks between you and your turn 500 times against your opponents' actual rosters: their open slots, your room's measured appetites, and the measured share of real picks that go to players no board ranks. (-survival=adp falls back to the pure price-curve model.)
• Tiers that alarm — amber when a tier is probably gone before you act, red when the man on screen is the last of it. Tiers come from your rankings file; where it runs out, they're derived from the value curve.
• Run detection that isn't noise — four RBs in six picks only fires when it beats what the market itself expected for those picks.
• Your room, not the market — feeds it your league's past drafts and it reprices survival against how those people actually draft.
• A verdict, not a spreadsheet — on the clock it names a man and the two or three facts that justify him, in picks and odds rather than abstract points.

install

Download a release (no toolchain needed) — grab the tarball for your platform from the releases page, then:

tar -xzf pick6_*.tar.gz
xattr -d com.apple.quarantine pick6   # macOS only: clears the "unverified developer" block
mv pick6 ~/bin/                       # or anywhere on your PATH
pick6 version

checksums.txt on the release page carries the sha256 of every tarball.

Or with Go:

go install github.com/trisslazaj/pick6/cmd/pick6@latest

That installs to go env GOPATH/bin, which is often not on PATH — GOBIN=$HOME/bin go install ... puts it somewhere that is. Working on the code? go run ./cmd/pick6 <cmd> always runs current source.

quickstart

pick6 fetch                          # 1. pull data (players, adp, values, tiers)
pick6 live <draft_id> -user yourname # 2. sync your live sleeper draft

That's the whole thing. Your draft id is in the url: open the draft room in a browser and it reads sleeper.com/draft/nfl/<draft_id>. -user finds your seat from the draft order; -slot 4 sets it directly if the draft hasn't been seeded yet.

No Sleeper league? pick6 board runs the same war room with you typing the picks.

commands

pick6 fetch — pull the data

Downloads the Sleeper player pool, half-PPR ADP, and player values; joins everything onto Sleeper ids; applies your rankings; caches it all. Run it once before drafting and again on draft morning — inside 12 hours it's served from disk.

pick6 fetch                            # defaults: 12-team half-ppr
pick6 fetch -format ppr                # other scoring
pick6 fetch -rankings my-tiers.csv     # your tiers and points win (see below)

pick6 live <draft_id> — the main event

Polls the draft every few seconds and updates the board in place. Every pick is cross-checked against the snake math; traded picks land on the right roster; a dropped poll self-heals on the next one. Reads your league's real lineup (two flex? superflex?) from Sleeper.

On the clock the board leads with a verdict — the man, his price, his odds, the tier he's the last of — then the field ranked by what the pick is worth.

pick6 board — no feed, same brain

For in-person drafts, or any platform without an API. / finds a player, x marks him gone, u takes it back. Everything downstream is identical — the engine never asks where a pick came from.

pick6 board -slot 7 -teams 10 -lineup "qb rb rb wr wr te flex flex k def" -bench 6

pick6 mock — watch it think

Replays a scripted draft against the real UI with real players — only the pick sequence is synthetic. -seed N replays the same draft every time; space steps, a autoplays.

Off the clock the same ranking reads as a forecast: who'll likely be there, who's falling (amber — the draft moved past his price), what you'd settle for.

pick6 tiers — the tier board, printed

pick6 tiers -pos wr -depth 15

the data tab

tab flips any board to a flat table of every available player and every number the engine holds — value, tier, adp, spread, survival, format gap — with your rankings file's opinions riding the names.

Late in the draft, kickers and defenses light up exactly when they should and not a round before:

for the curious

pick6 scout profiles each manager's tendencies from your league's cached drafts; pick6 calibrate backtests both survival models against real completed drafts and grades every model choice — the simulation ships because it won that backtest on every draft that could test it fairly. Neither command is needed to draft.

keys

key	does
/	search players — taken ones stay in the results with the pick that took them
x / u	mark taken / undo (board mode)
tab	flip board ↔ data table
j k / p	scroll / position filter (data tab)
space / a	step / autoplay (mock mode)
q	quit

bring your own rankings

A CSV turns the board into your board — its tiers drive the cliff alarms, its opinions ride the names. Column order doesn't matter, unknown columns are ignored, FantasyPros exports load as-is:

name,position,team,tier,points,sentiment
Jahmyr Gibbs,RB,,1,,target
De'Von Achane,RB,,4,,avoid
Philadelphia Eagles,DEF,PHI,,,target

• tier — your tier lines, kept exactly; oversized tiers are subdivided, never merged.
• points — projected points; overrides the fetched values.
• sentiment — target / pass / avoid. Display-only: an avoid badge rides the player's name, and a verdict crowning a man you flagged says so. Rows with only a name, position and sentiment are valid — that's how kicker and defense calls work.

the math

Everything on screen is a probability with a paper trail — an opponent-aware Monte Carlo (rosters, room appetites, and a measured escape rate for picks that leave the ranked board), survival curves per player, an exactly-N correction, expected-best-later urgency, probabilistic tier holds — and every constant was chosen by backtesting against real completed drafts. The whole derivation, the calibration methodology, and the ideas that measured worse and were removed (including the leak that briefly flattered the simulation) live in the engine paper (also attached to every release).

data sources

• ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator, whose free ADP API made this possible.
• Player values and ID crosswalk from FantasyCalc.
• Player pool and live draft feed from Sleeper.

license

MIT — see LICENSE.